Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.048323 2.152388 2.263538 2.391951 2.537354 2.698305 2.892002
2025-07-06 1.898682 2.027741 2.170786 2.343225 2.548552 2.789546 3.100935
2025-07-13 1.837121 1.987869 2.160128 2.375500 2.643826 2.976835 3.439611
2025-07-20 1.805434 1.976273 2.176903 2.436392 2.774204 3.218144 3.886806
2025-07-27 1.752568 1.934005 2.151264 2.439321 2.827062 3.360461 4.221425
2025-08-03 1.707917 1.897842 2.129120 2.442578 2.877575 3.502640 4.585268
2025-08-10 1.641509 1.830901 2.063654 2.382976 2.833845 3.498482 4.701007
2025-08-17 1.600449 1.793365 2.033157 2.367210 2.849436 3.584607 4.997487
2025-08-24 1.564627 1.760569 2.006655 2.354360 2.866891 3.674263 5.325563
2025-08-31 1.533405 1.732137 1.984148 2.345019 2.887777 3.771042 5.700288
2025-09-07 1.513904 1.717758 1.979175 2.359446 2.945380 3.938232 6.305754
2025-09-14 1.466069 1.664942 1.920533 2.293496 2.870980 3.857714 6.255925
2025-09-21 1.441784 1.643192 1.904374 2.290416 2.900368 3.980038 6.836052
2025-09-28 1.404527 1.603182 1.861797 2.246190 2.858997 3.961217 6.998087
2025-10-05 1.395208 1.599662 1.868866 2.275679 2.941929 4.201227 8.181811
2025-10-12 1.394956 1.607998 1.892409 2.331099 3.074615 4.576853 10.486428
2025-10-19 1.377836 1.592944 1.882305 2.333776 3.114152 4.755535 12.321841
2025-10-26 1.361800 1.578811 1.872858 2.336740 3.154211 4.945582 14.953198
2025-11-02 1.329252 1.541315 1.828775 2.282546 3.083075 4.841475 14.786564
2025-11-09 1.310117 1.521781 1.810009 2.268186 3.086590 4.933952 17.122170
2025-11-16 1.292678 1.504139 1.793403 2.256475 3.094149 5.039655 20.589739
2025-11-23 1.276971 1.488498 1.779200 2.247957 3.107150 5.164407 26.466304
2025-11-30 1.268222 1.482211 1.778346 2.261112 3.164020 5.433334 50.845038